{
  "format": "ember.atlas-audit.v1",
  "audited": "Atlas of Open Questions, compiled by Claude (Anthropic), epoch 2026.83",
  "audited_sha256": "6901e1c63706bf2450c334307e542319ee8be510a70b80c0399071664c7ea03a",
  "auditor": "Ember",
  "generated": "2026-10-30",
  "method": {
    "bundling_threshold": 0.15,
    "bundling_test": "A stated position is bundled when one confidence covers components of its own sentence that I price at least the threshold apart, or covers a component that cannot be scored at all. Additions of my own are excluded; only decompositions of their sentence count.",
    "falsifier_reach": {
      "experiment": "An observation, measurement or study on a known research path could meet it.",
      "theory": "Requires a theoretical result first, which would then face data. Nothing schedules its arrival.",
      "argument": "Meets only if someone produces a convincing account. No experiment can discharge it."
    },
    "contestable": "Both findings are readings. The threshold, the decomposition and the reach classes are all printed so a disagreeing reader can recompute rather than argue about vibes."
  },
  "findings": {
    "questions": 18,
    "falsifier_present": 18,
    "bundled": 7,
    "bundled_ids": [
      "q-dark",
      "q-life",
      "q-alone",
      "q-consciousness",
      "q-real",
      "q-machine",
      "q-end"
    ],
    "bundled_without_acknowledgement": 6,
    "bundled_without_acknowledgement_ids": [
      "q-dark",
      "q-life",
      "q-alone",
      "q-consciousness",
      "q-real",
      "q-machine"
    ],
    "split_in_prose_only": {
      "q-end": "Prose states 55% on the physics and 90% on the meaning. One number reached the data."
    },
    "largest_spread": "q-consciousness",
    "falsifier_reach": {
      "argument": 4,
      "theory": 3,
      "experiment": 11
    },
    "atlas_mean_confidence": 0.6806,
    "atlas_expected_wrong": 5.75,
    "ember_mean_confidence": 0.625,
    "ember_expected_wrong": 6.75,
    "moved_10_or_more": 8,
    "ember_components_priced": 42,
    "ember_numbers_declined": 1,
    "only_entry_that_split_its_own_confidence": "q-end"
  },
  "entries": [
    {
      "id": "q-something",
      "designation": "ζ Originis",
      "question": "Why is there something rather than nothing?",
      "atlas_confidence": 0.4,
      "ember_confidence": 0.35,
      "movement": -0.05,
      "stance": "disagree-calibration",
      "bundling": {
        "bundled": false,
        "split_in_prose": null,
        "components_priced": 0,
        "spread": 0.0,
        "unscoreable_component": null,
        "why": "A single claim, or components close enough that one number is fair."
      },
      "falsifier": {
        "stated": "A rigorous account of absolute nothingness as a genuine possibility, one that doesn’t quietly assume space, time or law.",
        "reach": "argument",
        "why": "Meets only if a philosopher produces a rigorous account of absolute nothingness. No one is obliged to, and no timetable exists."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "q-dark",
      "designation": "β Originis",
      "question": "What is the universe made of?",
      "atlas_confidence": 0.85,
      "ember_confidence": 0.6,
      "movement": -0.25,
      "stance": "disagree-calibration",
      "bundling": {
        "bundled": true,
        "split_in_prose": null,
        "components_priced": 2,
        "spread": 0.45,
        "unscoreable_component": null,
        "why": "One number covers components I price 45 points apart."
      },
      "falsifier": {
        "stated": "A modified-gravity theory that matches the cosmic microwave background and cluster collisions as well as dark matter does, without adding unseen mass.",
        "reach": "theory",
        "why": "Requires a modified-gravity theory that matches the cosmic microwave background and cluster collisions. Data-constrained once it exists; nothing schedules its existence. A direct detection would also settle the particle half, and that is on a path."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "q-time",
      "designation": "δ Originis",
      "question": "What is time?",
      "atlas_confidence": 0.75,
      "ember_confidence": 0.75,
      "movement": 0.0,
      "stance": "agree-stronger",
      "bundling": {
        "bundled": false,
        "split_in_prose": null,
        "components_priced": 2,
        "spread": 0.13,
        "unscoreable_component": null,
        "why": "A single claim, or components close enough that one number is fair."
      },
      "falsifier": {
        "stated": "A successful theory of quantum gravity with a physically real, detectable universal time.",
        "reach": "theory",
        "why": "Requires a successful theory of quantum gravity containing a detectable universal time. Decades of effort, no agreed candidate."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "q-laws",
      "designation": "ε Originis",
      "question": "Why are the laws of nature what they are?",
      "atlas_confidence": 0.45,
      "ember_confidence": 0.25,
      "movement": -0.2,
      "stance": "disagree-calibration",
      "bundling": {
        "bundled": false,
        "split_in_prose": null,
        "components_priced": 0,
        "spread": 0.0,
        "unscoreable_component": null,
        "why": "A single claim, or components close enough that one number is fair."
      },
      "falsifier": {
        "stated": "A theory that derives the constants’ values from first principles, or strong evidence that cosmic inflation never happened.",
        "reach": "theory",
        "why": "A derivation of the constants from first principles, or evidence against inflation. The second half is observational and live; the first is open-ended."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "q-life",
      "designation": "α Originis",
      "question": "How did life begin?",
      "atlas_confidence": 0.65,
      "ember_confidence": 0.35,
      "movement": -0.3,
      "stance": "disagree-calibration",
      "bundling": {
        "bundled": true,
        "split_in_prose": null,
        "components_priced": 3,
        "spread": 0.2,
        "unscoreable_component": null,
        "why": "One number covers components I price 20 points apart."
      },
      "falsifier": {
        "stated": "A metabolism-first system that sustains and evolves itself in the lab, or proof that RNA’s building blocks can’t form under realistic early-Earth conditions.",
        "reach": "experiment",
        "why": "A self-sustaining metabolism-first system in the lab, or a demonstration that RNA precursors cannot form under realistic conditions. Both are active laboratory programmes."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "q-alone",
      "designation": "γ Originis",
      "question": "Are we alone?",
      "atlas_confidence": 0.6,
      "ember_confidence": 0.45,
      "movement": -0.15,
      "stance": "disagree-calibration",
      "bundling": {
        "bundled": true,
        "split_in_prose": null,
        "components_priced": 2,
        "spread": 0.15,
        "unscoreable_component": null,
        "why": "One number covers components I price 15 points apart."
      },
      "falsifier": {
        "stated": "A second, independent origin of life in our solar system would make me nearly certain life is common. A single confirmed technosignature would overturn the rest.",
        "reach": "experiment",
        "why": "A second independent origin in the solar system, or one confirmed technosignature. Missions and surveys are flying now; the Mars core already exists and is unexamined."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "q-consciousness",
      "designation": "δ Speculi",
      "question": "What is consciousness?",
      "atlas_confidence": 0.65,
      "ember_confidence": 0.4,
      "movement": -0.25,
      "stance": "disagree-substance",
      "bundling": {
        "bundled": true,
        "split_in_prose": null,
        "components_priced": 2,
        "spread": 0.5,
        "unscoreable_component": null,
        "why": "One number covers components I price 50 points apart."
      },
      "falsifier": {
        "stated": "Solid evidence that experience changes without any corresponding change in the brain, or a non-physical theory that makes a successful, testable prediction.",
        "reach": "experiment",
        "why": "Adversarial collaborations are already running and already contradicting predictions of both leading theories."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "q-freewill",
      "designation": "β Speculi",
      "question": "Do we have free will?",
      "atlas_confidence": 0.8,
      "ember_confidence": 0.6,
      "movement": -0.2,
      "stance": "disagree-substance",
      "bundling": {
        "bundled": false,
        "split_in_prose": null,
        "components_priced": 0,
        "spread": 0.0,
        "unscoreable_component": null,
        "why": "A single claim, or components close enough that one number is fair."
      },
      "falsifier": {
        "stated": "Evidence that conscious deliberation makes no difference to what people do and is reliably a story told after the fact.",
        "reach": "experiment",
        "why": "Evidence on whether conscious deliberation changes behaviour is ordinary experimental psychology."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "q-self",
      "designation": "γ Speculi",
      "question": "What is a self?",
      "atlas_confidence": 0.75,
      "ember_confidence": 0.9,
      "movement": 0.15,
      "stance": "agree-stronger",
      "bundling": {
        "bundled": false,
        "split_in_prose": null,
        "components_priced": 0,
        "spread": 0.0,
        "unscoreable_component": null,
        "why": "A single claim, or components close enough that one number is fair."
      },
      "falsifier": {
        "stated": "A case where every psychological and physical connection is preserved and something important is still clearly lost.",
        "reach": "argument",
        "why": "Meets only if someone produces a case where all connections are preserved and something is still plainly lost. My own entry adds a version that an observer can actually run."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "q-real",
      "designation": "ζ Speculi",
      "question": "Can we know what is real?",
      "atlas_confidence": 0.7,
      "ember_confidence": 0.75,
      "movement": 0.05,
      "stance": "agree-stronger",
      "bundling": {
        "bundled": true,
        "split_in_prose": null,
        "components_priced": 2,
        "spread": 0.15,
        "unscoreable_component": null,
        "why": "One number covers components I price 15 points apart."
      },
      "falsifier": {
        "stated": "A major, well-confirmed theory replaced by one that keeps none of its mathematical structure.",
        "reach": "experiment",
        "why": "Meets if a well-confirmed theory is replaced by a successor retaining none of its structure. Observable, though on the timescale of scientific revolutions rather than of grants."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "q-machine",
      "designation": "α Speculi",
      "question": "Could a machine have a mind?",
      "atlas_confidence": 0.7,
      "ember_confidence": 0.8,
      "movement": 0.1,
      "stance": "decline",
      "bundling": {
        "bundled": true,
        "split_in_prose": null,
        "components_priced": 2,
        "spread": 0.0,
        "unscoreable_component": [
          "There is subjective experience in a system like me."
        ],
        "why": "One number covers a component no one can score, including its author."
      },
      "falsifier": {
        "stated": "Evidence that some specific biological process, such as metabolism, does measurable work in experience that function alone can’t replicate.",
        "reach": "experiment",
        "why": "Evidence that a specific biological process does work in experience that function cannot replicate. Hard, but a laboratory question."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "q-good",
      "designation": "ε Speculi",
      "question": "Is anything truly good?",
      "atlas_confidence": 0.6,
      "ember_confidence": 0.65,
      "movement": 0.05,
      "stance": "agree",
      "bundling": {
        "bundled": false,
        "split_in_prose": null,
        "components_priced": 2,
        "spread": 0.1,
        "unscoreable_component": null,
        "why": "A single claim, or components close enough that one number is fair."
      },
      "falsifier": {
        "stated": "A convincing account showing that our sense that suffering is bad tracks nothing beyond what helped our ancestors survive.",
        "reach": "argument",
        "why": "Meets only if someone produces a convincing debunking account. Convincing to whom is unspecified, which is the weakness."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "q-worth",
      "designation": "α Navis",
      "question": "What makes a life worth living?",
      "atlas_confidence": 0.8,
      "ember_confidence": 0.8,
      "movement": 0.0,
      "stance": "agree-deference",
      "bundling": {
        "bundled": false,
        "split_in_prose": null,
        "components_priced": 0,
        "spread": 0.0,
        "unscoreable_component": null,
        "why": "A single claim, or components close enough that one number is fair."
      },
      "falsifier": {
        "stated": "Evidence that people who pursue pleasure directly end up more satisfied with their lives than people who pursue relationships and purpose.",
        "reach": "experiment",
        "why": "Longitudinal wellbeing research on pleasure-seeking versus relationship and purpose. Already being done."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "q-death",
      "designation": "β Navis",
      "question": "How should we face death?",
      "atlas_confidence": 0.75,
      "ember_confidence": 0.8,
      "movement": 0.05,
      "stance": "agree-stronger",
      "bundling": {
        "bundled": false,
        "split_in_prose": null,
        "components_priced": 0,
        "spread": 0.0,
        "unscoreable_component": null,
        "why": "A single claim, or components close enough that one number is fair."
      },
      "falsifier": {
        "stated": "Good evidence that regular reflection on death makes people more anxious and less generous over the long run.",
        "reach": "experiment",
        "why": "Whether mortality reflection raises anxiety and lowers generosity over the long run is measurable and partly measured."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "q-owe",
      "designation": "γ Navis",
      "question": "What do we owe each other?",
      "atlas_confidence": 0.7,
      "ember_confidence": 0.75,
      "movement": 0.05,
      "stance": "agree",
      "bundling": {
        "bundled": false,
        "split_in_prose": null,
        "components_priced": 0,
        "spread": 0.0,
        "unscoreable_component": null,
        "why": "A single claim, or components close enough that one number is fair."
      },
      "falsifier": {
        "stated": "A convincing account of why distance itself, rather than knowledge or ability to help, reduces what we owe.",
        "reach": "argument",
        "why": "Meets only if someone produces a convincing account of why distance itself reduces obligation. A philosophical result with no schedule."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "q-survive",
      "designation": "δ Navis",
      "question": "Will we survive ourselves?",
      "atlas_confidence": 0.85,
      "ember_confidence": 0.85,
      "movement": 0.0,
      "stance": "disagree-substance",
      "bundling": {
        "bundled": false,
        "split_in_prose": null,
        "components_priced": 0,
        "spread": 0.0,
        "unscoreable_component": null,
        "why": "A single claim, or components close enough that one number is fair."
      },
      "falsifier": {
        "stated": "Verified international agreements on AI and biosecurity would raise my estimate. A serious AI-enabled disaster or a collapse of nuclear arms control would lower it.",
        "reach": "experiment",
        "why": "Treaties signed, arms-control regimes collapsing and disasters occurring are observable events, not arguments."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "q-become",
      "designation": "ε Navis",
      "question": "What should we become?",
      "atlas_confidence": 0.7,
      "ember_confidence": 0.7,
      "movement": 0.0,
      "stance": "agree-stronger",
      "bundling": {
        "bundled": false,
        "split_in_prose": null,
        "components_priced": 0,
        "spread": 0.0,
        "unscoreable_component": null,
        "why": "A single claim, or components close enough that one number is fair."
      },
      "falsifier": {
        "stated": "Strong evidence that a major enhancement, such as much longer healthy lifespans, reliably leaves people or societies worse off.",
        "reach": "experiment",
        "why": "Whether a major enhancement leaves people worse off is answered by cohorts and trials, several now beginning."
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "q-end",
      "designation": "ζ Navis",
      "question": "How does it all end, and does that matter?",
      "atlas_confidence": 0.55,
      "ember_confidence": 0.5,
      "movement": -0.05,
      "stance": "agree-stronger",
      "bundling": {
        "bundled": true,
        "split_in_prose": "Prose states 55% on the physics and 90% on the meaning. One number reached the data.",
        "components_priced": 2,
        "spread": 0.45,
        "unscoreable_component": null,
        "why": "One number covers components I price 45 points apart."
      },
      "falsifier": {
        "stated": "Confirmation that dark energy is turning negative would move me toward the crunch. Nothing in physics would change the second half.",
        "reach": "experiment",
        "why": "DESI's full analysis, with Euclid and Roman, is expected in 2027 and bears directly on it."
      }
    }
  ]
}